Posts tagged Palin
Smoking gun: Okay… so MAYBE a sister can be that affectionate with her little brother. But what boyfriend in the world, or even what fiance in the world, shows that sort of affection to his girlfriend’s little baby brother… unless that baby brother is his SON.
So it turns out that Vice Presidential Candidate Palin has a son.
Her eldest son. His name is Track.
Track Palin joined the army on September 11 of last year… or around seven months before his latest sibling was born.
He got out of town.
I’m thinking that this guy Track knows the deal, and that someone should chat with him. So… yeah…
There’s this other thing about this guy Track… when the Anchorage newspaper ran the story about him joining the Army, they said he did so for “undisclosed reasons”.
So perhaps some enterprising reporter can track down Track, and see what he has to say about things.
Are the members of the press going to scrutinize Vice Presidential Candidate Palin’s Medical Records?
Will they determine whether she is in fact the mother of her claimed fifth child? There should be more than just a Birth Certificate. We need to see the full history of this pregnancy.
Oh, and who really boards an airplane AFTER their water breaks, to travel for several hours, to then go off into the woods or whatever, and to give birth alone.
I mean, who does that?
Medical Records.
The only real proof of parentage by the way is the DNA.
Yeah, let’s see that.
Presidential Candidate McCain used to have quite a powerful argument against his challenger candidate Obama.
McCain pointed out that he had a lot more experience, and opined that this greater experience therefore clearly indicated that his judgment as President would be better.
Perhaps due to this matter, when it came time for his first Presidential decision, choosing his running mate, candidate Obama did not make a hasty choice. Obama and his campaign staff went through what has been described as one of the most thorough vetting processes ever. They asked for a mountain of documents. They took their time.
And then, when they were done, the Obama campaign came up with Senator Biden, a man who had run for President a couple of times, and who was found to be Presidential… a guy who complemented Obama’s perceived weaknesses…. a choice people seem to have found to be sound.
Then came McCain’s turn. If anything, McCain could have argued that the choice of Biden simply highlighted the original matter about lack of experience, since Obama went out of his way to find such an experienced, inside-the-beltway person.
But instead of highlighting the matter, McCain negated it by choosing someone with even less experience in Governor Palin - someone who has been governor of an almost unpopulated state for less than two years.
Okay that is a point - but perhaps you can still argue that the Obama deficit is worse, since he is actually the Presidential candidate.
But.
Then.
All of these revelations have come out about Palin. First Troopergate. Then the fact that her daughter is currently pregnant. About five months pregnant. And this had not been previously revealed.
And now, you have to ask, what kind of vetting did McCain do?
According to reports, now much of a vetting. No one can find a Republican in the state of Alaska who was queried concerning Palin by the McCain campaign.
And it’s not like there are that many people to talk to. Maybe there are 11 people.
So this is no longer a Palin thing. It is a McCain matter. This choice of a Vice Presidential Candidate, when you are 72, and have had cancer 4 times, and have to really really be careful that your choice could function as President… and when you are trying to make the point that you know how to make decisions whereas your opponent does not… this choice matters. It matters a lot. So how could McCain make the choice without even the most basic vetting?
That is the matter.
So it seems McCain no longer has his best argument against Obama, that he is better at making Presidential-level decisions than his challenger.
He is worse. A lot worse.
Really not so good.
So here is sort of a math point, using this current Babygate matter.
You start out with a highly improbable story, that the Vice-Presidential Candidate and current governor Palin is not the mother of her claimed fifth child, but the grandmother, and that Palin actually fabricated this tory, faking her pregnancy. The actual mother of the baby, so the tale went, was Palin’s then-16-year-old daughter, Bristol.
Now such an improbable tell carries with it several premises, which at the time of the tale were unverified.
Anyway, to refute this improbable tale, the McCain campaign yesterday explained that the daughter, Bristol Palin, could not have been the mother of the previous baby, who was born April 18th, 2008, because she is actually pregnant now, in early September.
How pregnant is she? She is claimed to be “around five months pregnant.”
Okay, so back to basic probability. Here’s the question: does the new story make the old story less or more likely?
With the new story we have verification of several previously unproven premises:
1) That Palin’s daughter Bristol was having pre-marital sex
2) That Palin’s daughter Bristol was not using birth control, or was engaging in a form of birth control that allowed for pregnancy
3) That Palin’s daughter Bristol was fertile.
The “big point” is whether the new story disproves the old story by making it “impossible” or even “unlikely” or “less likely” that Bristol is the mother of both children. For this point, one just has to look at a calendar, and understand fertility. If you have a child on April 18th, you can in fact ovulate soon after. As soon as two weeks, but perhaps more commonly a month after. In either of these scenarios, you can certainly become pregnant again, and be “around five months” pregnant by September.
So this does not work as a refutation. In contrast, the new story makes the old, rather crazily improbable story much much more likely, because it verifies some critical points.
Given all of this, why on earth would the McCain and Palin campaign put out this new story as an answer, as a refutation, to the previous story?
Only time will tell.
